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Philip Tetlock is an expert on forecasting; he’s spent decades studying how people make predictions — from political pundits to CIA analysts. In this conversation, he discusses a wide range of topics, including prediction algorithms, the long-term future, and his Good Judgment Project (which identified common traits of the most skilled forecasters). To learn more about effective altruism, visit effectivealtruism.org
This talk was filmed at EA Global 2019: San Francisco. You can learn more about these conferences at eaglobal.org.