Governments and other influential institutions often have to make extremely high-stakes decisions, depending on the judgement of a few key people. We know that human judgement and decision-making is far from perfect – but research suggest that practices like calibration training and making explicit forecasts may lead to substantial improvements. Jess will discuss why improving institutional decision-making could be a high-impact cause area worth more attention in EA, and some avenues in this space that seem promising. She will also raise some uncertainties about doing this kind of work, and questions for further exploration.
Source: Effective Altruism Global (video).